This is the third in a series of three posts addressing the question, when will the world end? In our last two articles we looked at two of three tests for determining the reliability of various sources which claim to have answers to this question. Now, let’s consider the third test – the multiplicity test.
This test asks, “Are there multiple sources in agreement and providing confirmation.” If our source is just one lonely voice, that may be an indicator of a lack of credibility. Notice we say, it “may be” – that’s because there have been instances when a lone voice or just a few raised a warning that went unheeded, and the few people raising the alarm turned out to be right.
This was true in the case of the economic collapse of the fall – 2008. While the events which took place in September of 2008 caught many people by surprise, there were a few sources warning of impending financial disaster, which went largely unheeded. Three months before the collapse, the Royal Bank of Scotland warned of a world wide financial melt-down by September. Another financial “think tank” in Europe had been predicting the same thing for many months. Notice that in this case, although there were only a few giving the warning, there was more than just one source.
By multiplicity we do not mean “the more the better.” That’s not always the case. For example, we do not recommend adopting the herd mentality which says “just follow the crowd.” But we should be just as wary about following a singular voice for which there is no real confirmation. What we are looking for is enough multiplicity to establish credibility.
Multiplicity also has to do with affirming sources. These are additional sources which provide affirmation that either the predictions made came true, or the advice followed really worked. In the business world, these are called “testimonials” – the people who say, “I tried this product, and it worked!” Of course, in the business world, we all know that sometimes people are paid to say such things, so we may take them “with a grain of salt.” However, when we personally know someone who provides affirmation, that has more impact.
In our next post we will finally start to apply these tests to some real life examples – the Mayans, Nostradamus and the Bible. Remember, we are interested in answers to the question – when will the world end?
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