In this post we’ll consider the second test for credibility. I call it the accuracy test. You can apply this test when determining which information sources you can trust – particularly regarding questions like “when will the world end?” This test considers how often our information source has been right. We might be able to get along alright with a weatherman who is right some of the time, and wrong some of the time, but that doesn’t work in all aspects of life. If your flying in an airliner you want a pilot who cares about accuracy. It’s not O.K. if he only has a 50% success rate at safe landings, right?
It’s interesting that people believe all sorts of things they hear or read yet they don’t check out the accuracy rate of their sources. Sometimes it’s hard to do that, but that’s where our first test – History – comes in. If there’s no history, than you can’t check the accuracy rate. If there is, then you have to dig around a bit to find out how often your source has been right, and how often it’s been wrong.
Accuracy also has to do with something else. How specific were the statements or predictions of the source? In other words, a prediction can be so vague or ambiguous that a person could make it fit just about anything. But if a forecast for the future is very specific, so that it can be easily verified, then we can better determine the accuracy rate.
So there are two levels of accuracy. First, the basic accuracy rate of the predictions made. Second, the accuracy with regard to the details of the prediction itself. In our next post, we’ll consider the third and final test of our triad of three basic credibility tests. You’ll find that these tests really will help you determine who you can trust when looking for answers on when will the world end.
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This is a helpful test. It really is true that, especially discussing when will the world end, there are sources out there that don’t offer a track record of accuracy – some even have the opposite. Looking forward to the next post.
Appreciate this good common sens approach to addressing the when will the world end question. There are so many ideas floating around and it seems many don’t handle this with as much care as they do deciding where to buy their groceries. Looking forward to more helpful posts.